Wednesday, September 30, 2009
Eurusd 1 Oct
Looking for a bounce at 1.4700 and later for another sell opportunity if price trade higher to 1.4760
Making $ while you sleep
We made another live call to long EU 1.4590 during last night live trade session. Congratulation to those who have attended my live session and profit from this trade call. You made more then 90 pip while you sleep :)
ADP
Bigger then expected decline in ADP of 254K (vs expected 200K) boosted USD and JPY, while better than expected revision in Q2 GDP showing smaller decline further boosted USD gains.
All eye on ECB today
The ECB will hold the second refinancing operation today, the results of which will be published soon after 0900 GMT. Yesterday refinancing operation, amount allotted dropped once again, to EUR67bn from EUR85bn.
For FX markets, the refinance operation is being closely watched for its potential impact on EURCHF. Given that the last major round of intervention by the SNB coincided with the allotment date of the previous 12-month refinancing operation, markets are braced a similar move today, though EURCHF at present is probably trading at levels the SNB remains comfortable with.
We believe foreign borrowers are finding it difficult to obtain CHF liquidity at present, as Swiss banks have sharply cut their credit lines to external borrowers by more than 30%, as opposed to increasing them for the domestic sector. Total borrowing by external counterparties is down to CHF113bln as of July 2009, almost 39% below peak levels seen before the crisis struck. Domestic credit is being given priority over the external sector, causing the sources and volume of credit available for foreign lending to be reduced - which also means less sales of the Swiss franc.
As funding in CHF becomes difficult, borrowers understandably conserve their credit lines, and this has significant implications for the CHF. In two episodes from 2000-2003, and the recent credit crisis, foreign borrowers cut back sharply on usage of their CHF credit lines. This means less CHF was sent overseas and allowed the CHF to appreciate in real terms on both occasions. So long as economic prospects remain weak and credit hard to come by, foreign borrowers will continue to sparingly use their CHF credit, and the lack of selling pressure will translate into franc strength.
From UBS
For FX markets, the refinance operation is being closely watched for its potential impact on EURCHF. Given that the last major round of intervention by the SNB coincided with the allotment date of the previous 12-month refinancing operation, markets are braced a similar move today, though EURCHF at present is probably trading at levels the SNB remains comfortable with.
We believe foreign borrowers are finding it difficult to obtain CHF liquidity at present, as Swiss banks have sharply cut their credit lines to external borrowers by more than 30%, as opposed to increasing them for the domestic sector. Total borrowing by external counterparties is down to CHF113bln as of July 2009, almost 39% below peak levels seen before the crisis struck. Domestic credit is being given priority over the external sector, causing the sources and volume of credit available for foreign lending to be reduced - which also means less sales of the Swiss franc.
As funding in CHF becomes difficult, borrowers understandably conserve their credit lines, and this has significant implications for the CHF. In two episodes from 2000-2003, and the recent credit crisis, foreign borrowers cut back sharply on usage of their CHF credit lines. This means less CHF was sent overseas and allowed the CHF to appreciate in real terms on both occasions. So long as economic prospects remain weak and credit hard to come by, foreign borrowers will continue to sparingly use their CHF credit, and the lack of selling pressure will translate into franc strength.
From UBS
Usdjpy - 30 Sep
Usdjpy potential H&S forming. I will be looking to sell if price head back up to 90.00.
Tuesday, September 29, 2009
Eurusd 30 Sep
If you recall, we have discussed this pair during our last week live trade. Thre are 2 areas hat we will be looking for trade. The buy and sell zone.
This week, we saw the pair went to 1.4530 where we are already ready to b long there. Price already move up 100 pip ++
If you recall, we also mention the AB=CD reversal pattern .
Monday, September 28, 2009
Thursday, September 24, 2009
USDCAD tokyo trade
I am selling the Usdcad based on tokyo trade.
A good 40 pip tokyo trade. I sold at 1.0922, and tp 1.0880. Hope you also pickup some pip. Sms trade alert was sent this morning to those who attend live trading session.
Eurusd
Looking the weekly timeframe, one can see that price had multiple top 1.4840-1.4960 in the past. Now the price back to this resistence once again, I think we likely to see price repeat its history once again. Look for sideway market here. But this sideway market can be 200-300 pip range.
In D1, we saw a KR and evening star. Go to H4, likely to see this pair heading down to 1.4570-1.4600 before proceed back up again.
Many trading opportunities ahead. watch for them.
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
Audjpy
Looking at the H4, we saw a BELC which likely to push price lower to 79.00. Afterwhich, if price manage to move up to 79.80 again, I will be looking for a sell.
25 Sep - SRZ which prepared much early hold the price up, amazing !
Tuesday, September 22, 2009
Chfjpy
A bearish Gartley. Looking for PA before initial my Sell order on D1
Today, we have a cfm to short this pair. Please refer to the update chart.
EurJpy
A beaish Gartley formed. Now waiting for PA cfm to sell in D1.
24 Sep - Today, we have a cfm to short EJ. Refer to the update chart.
I like to start my day by looking at the weekly time frame. In this time frame, i get a good view of the potential turning points and mark them down. Then I will go down to daily time frame, again to look for SRZ, and H4, and H1. These is how I define my "hunting ground" and wait for my "target" (price) to enter my trading zone and look for a trade :)
Support Resistence
The core of my trades setup are Support & Resistence. A swing high is a resistence, a swing low is a support.
A swing high is a pure resistence, it become significant when this resistence later turn into a support. Likewise, a support is just a plain support. When a support tuen into a resistence, that is the price level I will pay more attention.
My trades entry usually enter around these levels. When trades are entered at these level, they are high probability trade setup with good risk & reward.
Look at GBPUSD. Selling at 1.6420 at Support Resistence Zone is my sell entry.
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